What do the Trainman trends mean?

A curious user might not be easily satisfied with just a percentage chance of confirmation of his waiting ticket. He might want to dig deeper and find more information regarding ticket confirmation scenarios in his journey route. That's where Trainman trends come in. Apart from giving confirmation chances for a given ticket, Trainman also allows you to view status of historical PNRs similar to your PNR. To make it less confusing and more valuable, Trainman shows only the relavant info of historical PNRs.

So, how can you use these trends? what information of a waitlisted PNR gives insight into the confirmation scenario of the corresponding journey? Here is a concise list:
  1. Initial waiting number: If waiting status of a ticket is, say, "GNWL X/WL Y", then X is the initial waiting number of that ticket. Remember that this number assumes that there has been no cancellation for this journey. Once all berths for a particular journey are full, indian railway system starts alotting this waiting number starting from 1 and incrementing each time. Even if anybody cancels his or her ticket, this value X does not go down. Y, on the other hand is the actual waiting status, that considers cancellation of tickets by other passenger, and hence is decremented every time a confirmed ticket or a waiting ticket with waiting above this ticket is cancelled.

    A waiting ticket always consists of the two numbers X and Y, but if one is to give the single most important number that determines the waiting status of a ticket, it has to be the number X. The number X is unique for this passenger and this journey, while the number Y can be same for two different passengers of the same journey at different times. The difference X-Y gives the number of passengers with waiting above this ticket that have cancelled their tickets till now for this journey. The rush on a given train on a given day can be determined by simply finding the maximum Initial waiting number that got allotted that day. Also, the confirmation scenario for a given journey can be determined simply by finding the maximum Initial waiting number that got cleared.

  2. Days before journey: This is the number of days between the ticket booking date and the journey date. Obviously, the higher the value of this, the higher is the chance of confirmation of your ticket.
  3. Journey date/day: It's a known phenomenon that the tickets are easily confirmed on a weekday that a weekend. Also, on popular holidays, the chances of confirmation are relatively much lesser than that on a normal day.

Considering the above important factors for determining the confirmation scenarios, Trainman trends consists of only these three columns, along with the final status of each ticket.

But trainman won't stop there. It adds its own intelligence, thus showing you the most relevant trends corresponding to your journey. Check out the trends yourself and see for yourself.