What it is?
It’s all about making informed decisions.
Trainman is the guy you count on when it comes to Indian Railways. It is an effort to provide train related intelligence in making your decisions while planning your train journeys. It goes beyond the common notion of berth availability in trains and guides you further even if berths are not available. For now, Trainman tells you whether to book a waiting ticket or not, by giving you chances of confirmation in that train. It also allows you to compare waiting tickets of various trains. Trainman also gives you confirmation chances of an already booked ticket.
How it works?
Well, it’s simple… How does any human do it?
Scientific prediction, in general, is based on simply mimicking the human way of predicting things i.e. learn from past experiences and apply those learnings to the present context. Train seat confirmation prediction is no different. Trainman keeps on learning from current trends in train ticket bookings and the ups and downs in ticket confirmation scenarios and tries to fit it to a mathematical form, which it reuses at the time of prediction.
What do the percentage values mean?
Likeliness to confirmation.
Normally, a confirmation chance of above 65% (green color) implies high chances of ticket confirmation. Chances between 50% and 65% (yellow color) imply less surety, while those below 50% (red color) imply very unlikely chances of confirmation.
What is the guarantee?
It's pretty accurate.
As with all kinds of predictions, there is never any guarantee. But, Trainman has been tested over 5 million pnrs and found to be correct with an average accuracy of around 83%. In some trains, the accuracy was found to be over 90%. Therefore, it gives the user a decent idea about what decisions to make while booking a train.
What do the trends mean?
Trends are relevant historical bookings which are similar to the journey in context. They give a sense of current ticket booking and cancellation scenarios for that train and are important for curious users. The trends show four most important factors that determine the chances of confirmation of a ticket, namely the initial status (waiting number on the date of journey without considering any cancellations), the final status just before the journey, the number of days between booking & journey date and the journey date itself. See what do the Trainman trends mean?
What are the colored icons under Arr and Dep column in Find Trains page?
The clock icon represents a train's punctuality at a particular station. If the average delay of a train at this station over last 7 days is greater than 2 hours, this icon turns red, otherwise it is green. This is trainman's way of providing your train's punctuality status at your fingertips.